Wednesday Worries – Ireland “Fixed” – Who’s Next?
Courtesy of Phil at Phil's Stock World
So many things are pissing me off today.
I got my political outrage out of the way in my earlier post: "Thanks for the Gas Money, Mr. President," so we don't need to talk about that again. Ireland, as of 7:45, has not actually voted to accept the EU's deal, which will pull $20,000 per Irish family directly from national pension funds to pay for the speculative mistakes of Irish Banks. Additionally, the Irish people are being asked to borrow another $75,000 per family from the EU at about 6% interest, also to pay for the speculative mistakes made by the Irish Banks. While this may seem insane - it's only a drop in the bucket compared to what Americans are spending to bail out our own speculators so why shouldn't they join the club?
At least Ireland gets to vote for their obligations, we have a Federal Reserve System where a single man, known as "The Bernank" is able to spend what is now heading towards $3.5Tn of OUR MONEY to bail out his banking buddies. That's $31,818 per American family spent over two years IN ADDITION to the stuff I complained about Obama and our spineless Government spending in the last post. As I said, things are pissing me off today! I should be in a better mood - we had a fabulous day trading in Member Chat yesterday. In yesterday's post, I closed with "One last stab at making some bearish profits for us (see Morning Alert)" and you can click on that Alert, which was posted on Seeking Alpha and check out our trade ideas for the $10,000 to $50,000 Portfolio which included (at 7:22 am yesterday) QID Jan $10 calls, which opened at $1.80 and finished at $2 (up 11%), DIA Dec $114 puts, which opened at .80 and finished at $1.33 (up 66%), XRT Jan $44 puts, which opened at .35 and finished at .55 (up 57%), USO Jan $36 puts, which opened at .66 and finished at .90 (up 36%), PCLN weekly $400 puts, which opened at $.50 and finished at $1.40 (up 180%) and NFLX Jan $155 puts, which opened at $1.70 and finished at $2.30 (up 35%) but should look much better this morning, where we will exit. Of course I featured the idea to short NFLX last Thursday in the Morning Post (which you would get at 8:30 every morning in progress if you subscribed!) and we talked about shorting oil in the Weekend Post and I mentioned XRT last week as well so it's not like these are even our "super-secret" trade ideas - this is just the stuff that looked obvious enough to risk our small portfolio plays on (as you don't want to take too much risk in a small portfolio, even when it is aggressive like our virtual $10,000 Portfolio). Once we got into Member Chat for the morning we went with more aggressive trade ideas like PCLN weekly $410 puts at $1.60, which finished the day at $4.20 (up 162%) and 6 other plays that we're not done with yet plus shorts on the oil futures at $90 that worked out very well. So why am I angry? You can't really have a better day than we had yesterday. Yesterday is the reason we have sat patiently (well kind of patiently) in cash for a month as we finally got an opportunity to commit to a whole bunch of very obvious trades, the most trade ideas I've had in a single day since early September, when we jumped on Uncle Ben's bullish bandwagon. Sure we find things to trade every day but these are the opportunities we wait for. I guess I'm pissed because we had to pull our December short plays off the table because the cartoon bears have warned us that they will be "Buying the F'ing Dips" and we know better than to argue with cartoon bears because it's simplistic little BS premises like that that rule this market. Ah, that's why I'm angry! As I keep saying, I don't enjoy day trading - it's not satisfying but it's what we do while we wait for real investment opportunities to come along. While it may be exciting to make 100% on a trade in a single day - it's small money and a tedious (and stressful) way to build up a portfolio. I suppose at heart, I'm a long-term investing coupon-clipper but those kind of investors are being chewed up and spit out in this market and, while we found many, many things to buy earlier in the year, now we're down to one or two long-term opportunities a day while most of the rest of the market looks better as a short. But you can't even stay short past the closing bell. Even as I write this post our paranoia in taking the money and running (our usual strategy) on our quick gains is looking justified as the dollar is, as usual, being shoved off it's overnight highs (used to prop up the Nikkei in our famous "3am Trade") during the slower EU lunch break in order to now goose the US futures to give US markets the best possible open on the least possible amount of volume (ergo cost to the Gang of 12). Despite debasement efforts by Obama and The Bernank yesterday, the dollar still rose back to 80.81 in overnight trading and that sent the Dow futures all the way down to 11,285 but don't despair - they've already been goosed back to 11,350 - just 5 points shy of yesterday's weak close. See, in a "normal" market we would have simply stayed short because clearly the momentum was down and the fundamentals indicate that all the efforts of Obama, The Bernank, the BOJ, the BOC, the ECB... are "too little, too late" to put the Humpty Dumpty global economy back together again. Some of the fundamentals we're watching: These are just TODAY'S headlines and they all add up to RISK. Lack of risk recognition by the markets was the primary reason I called for cash in early November. We are approaching 2008 pre-crash market highs with many stock trading higher than they were then on LESS revenues than they had at the time. Meanwhile, 10% of our population is unemployed, consumer credit is down by over $1,000,000,000 (15%), household wealth is down 20% and income is down while the CPI, even by BS Government measures, is up 5% since then, effectively giving those people who still have jobs 5% less to spend anyway. And when you consider that discretionary income is just 20% of income - if the 80% they HAVE to spend went up 5%, then that's 4% of discretionary income gone, which is 20% of discretionary income out the window - FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL WORKING. The other 10% have ZERO to spend and that's not good either. All of this is being ignored as "investors" buy stocks on the hopes that they will expand sales internationally and keep cutting costs despite the same inflation the speculators are using to justify their very high valuations. We're effectively writing off the US economy and placing all of our bullish eggs in the global basket - even though they have 20% unemployment "over there." - that's kind of nuts, don't you think? I'm not even going to ask if the above chart (from Calculated Risk) disturbs you . Clearly, from the results of the last election, it does not. We are over 6M jobs away from recovery and we added less than 40,000 last month. At least in Ireland, their population is shrinking, with 65,500 people (1.5%) abandoning the sinking ship as of April of this year. That's less likely to happen in America as Mexico is not that attractive and Canada doesn't want us and most people can't afford to move anyway as they are upside down on their mortgages so we, as a people, sit and wait. We sit and wait for something good to happen. Any minute now... Something good is bound to happen... NOW! OK, maybe not now but really soon - something good has got to happen, right? That pretty much sums up our national policy - we don't actually do anything to create jobs but if we sprinkle enough magical fairy money on the rich, we're sure they'll start hiring people real soon! Maybe as soon as they are done merging and acquiring smaller companies with all that money where they then create efficiencies by laying off 50,000 people a month (Challenger Job Cut Report) while more and more jobs are outsourced every day ($6Tn worth of jobs are currently outsourced). And why not? There are huge tax advantages to outsourcing US jobs - tax advantages that our President is perpetuating as he bends over and accepts the massive Republican tax cuts for the wealthy on behalf of the American people. Did I mention I was pissed? Good, then moving along... So we kept our Jan shorts and didn't add any longs because we expect a bounce on the usual opening nonsense but I don't see enough dry powder left for the bulls to take us over that critical Dow 11,500 mark. Meanwhile, CAT is way too high and they are a Dow component, as are XOM, CVX, IBM and MCD - all stocks that are major components in the price-weighted Dow and are more likely to pull back than move higher. EU money printing will not inflate our stocks - it may even boost the Buck and that would be bad for commodities, who had a pretty rough day yesterday (and we shorted a few). I wish it were easier and I wish we could just say "CAT is overbought so we're going short" but the fundamentals of the stock are trumped by rumors of infinite Chinese demand and inflation expectations that somehow ignore the negative impact of rising steel prices and increasing borrowing costs on the company. Of course the weak-dollar expectations have everyone moving into stocks, which are just another form of commodity to trade and, even as I write this, the dollar is being jammed back below 80.50 to goose the US open. At least we know how this game is rigged and we can have lots of fun betting the suckers never do find that red queen but what a shame that this is what the global economy has been reduced to - a shell game - and it's an empty shell at that!
Evan here. If you are a transactional associate at a top US firm and your name happens to be of Asian origin, especially of Chinese background, then you are probably receiving multiple cold calls per day from recruiters. After all the Asia lateral biglaw markets, especially HK / China are red hot now and it is of course very easy to compile a list of top US firm associates with Asian names.
Keep in mind that there can be very negative consequences in giving control of such an important career move and job search to someone calling you out of the blue (no matter how many times they may call). We often get calls from very well qualified US associates with sad tales of at worst their resume being plastered unauthorized all over China or other Asia markets; or at best only authorized submissions (thankfully) but realizing their recruiter has done little more than emailing their resume to begin with and is unresponsive for weeks.
It is important to note that your resume is a very valuable commodity to recruiters calling you. When you are placed at a law firm, the recruiter who submitted your resume is typically paid (by the law firm) 25 to 30% of your starting base salary. Thus, the recruiters cold-calling you have a big incentive to get a hold of your resume and email it to law firms, with or without your authorization (believe it or not, some biglaw recruiters in Asia are known to be even less ethical than the worst of the lot in the US). Once your resume has been submitted to a law firm, the recruiter who did so “owns” your candidacy there for at least six months. Further, when your resume has been submitted without your authorization, it will take an affidavit from you to the target firm explaining such for the submission to be reversed (and basically that is you explaining to the firm that you did not know you even applied there, which can of course cool off any motivation of that firm to continue to want to interview you, and the unethical recruiter is counting on you to thus not take that route).
We try to think that a lot of recruiters do not take such unethical steps, but please note that even the most well-intentioned recruiters trying to break into the Asia markets are more often than not woefully inexperienced with such lateral placements (and even most of those with some experience have never been more than resume pushers).
We recommend that you make sure you are represented by a recruiter who is willing and able (has the experience necessary in your target market) to act as your agent, instead of just someone who is only able and / or willing to email your resume to firms. You should be pro-actively looking for an agent (we recommend interviewing prospective agent / recruiters months before you start your search when possible), not simply handing your search over to a headhunter that happens to be calling with the earth shattering news that they know, for example, of firms in China that have openings for Mandarin fluent US associates in cap markets and M&A (almost every top US and UK firm in HK / China has such openings), or that the sky is blue.
The question you should be asking is not whether there are openings and whether you would be very competitive candidate for such spots (yes and yes), but whether the person calling you is best suited for representing you.
At the very least, make sure the recruiter cold-calling you can:
a) Provide at minimum 10 references of US associates they have actually placed in your target market in Asia (I could easily provide 50, as 10 is a very small and unimpressive number, but should be a minimum guideline to figure out if the recruiter actually has a history of successfully placing US associates in your target market); and
b) Is able to discuss in great detail each roles you may consider targeting, including details regarding the relevant partners involved (does the recruiter even have a business relationship with the particular partners making the hire), including their personality, practice area, and plans for growth. I usually refer to this as the “3 hour rule”, in that if you get the impression that the recruiter could not talk non-stop about your target market for about 3 hours, then move on to the next recruiter (does not mean you actually have to listen to them for 3 hours).
It can be a lengthy process to find the right fit lateral spot in Asia, especially if you are moving from the US. It is much more complex than simply moving down the street to another big office. Instead you are moving to a much smaller office, smaller group, a place where you will have a lot more responsibilities with clients and where your personality fit with your primary supervising partner will be key (not only for progression at your new firm, but also for the foundation of your career in your target Asian market).
It is also a very exciting move and you deserve to be working with an agent / recruiter (rather than headhunter / recruiter) who is excited about helping you and the firms / partners he is recruiting for in Asia; who is excited to be invested in your career for the long-term; not focused on a recruiting fee (is willing to give advice not corresponding with recruiter being paid if that is the best advice); and who is capable (actual long-term experience with the market and similar lateral moves) of giving you the best advice and guidance.
Our team at Kinney can of course do a great job for you on an Asia job search. We know a handful of recruiters outside our recruiting firm as well whom we can recommend and are happy to do so. If unfortunately you have gone down the road already of being represented by a headhunter (instead of an agent) and you need advice, feel free to get in touch with us as well. While we can’t represent you at your target firms in such situations (remember, your headhunter already “owns” your candidacy at any firm contacted for at least 6 months), we are happy to give you advice and guidance regarding job search strategy and which offer to take (we have helped numerous US associates in such situations, including helping them negotiate their comp packages).
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