Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Who's Making Money

style="text-align: center;">

/> [style="text-decoration: underline;">Ed. note: This post is authored by Evan Jowers and Robert Kinney of Kinney Recruiting, sponsor of the Asia Chronicles. Kinney has made more placements of U.S. associates and partners in Asia than any other firm in the past four years. You can reach them by email: asia at kinneyrecruiting dot com.]

Evan Jowers here, with a quick post before the New Year holiday. As you know from our recent posts, Robert Kinney and I have continued our pattern this year of traveling to Hong Kong / China to meet personally with clients and learn of openings (six trips each this year – ouch). Alexis Lamb of course is permanently based in our Hong Kong office and Yuliya Vinokurova travels to Asia periodically from her base in Russia. As a result of our availability to firms and more importantly our success in placing more US attorneys in Asia than any other recruiting firm, we are on top of many US associate openings at present in Hong Kong/China.

As you know from recent posts, we have many current openings for Mandarin fluent cap markets and M&A US associates (too numerous to list here). As the year winds to a close, we wanted to list in one place a description of some of our more unusual openings for US associates at top US and UK firms in Hong Kong / China:

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent private equity fund formation US associate; 2 to 5 years experience

Shanghai – native Mandarin fluent IP transactional US associate; mid to senior level

Hong Kong or Singapore – US securities / high yield / M&A mix US associate (English only ok); 4 to 7 years experience (the successful candidate will have his/her choice of Hong Kong or Singapore location)

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent private equity M&A US associate; 2 to 6 years experience

Hong Kong, Beijing or Shanghai – native Mandarin fluent US senior capital markets associate for counsel or partner role (several openings); very senior associate with top firm experience in China and NYC preferred

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent project finance US associate; 3 to 6 years experience

Beijing – native Mandarin fluent finance associate; junior to mid-level (multiple openings)id="more-50781">

Hong Kong – leveraged / acquisition finance; Hong Kong, UK or US qualification; Mandarin preferred; 2 to 5 years experienced

Hong Kong – acquisition finance US associate / counsel (English only fine, but Mandarin a nice bonus); senior associate / counsel level

Hong Kong – US project finance associate; Mandarin preferred; 3 to 6 years experience

Beijing – native Mandarin fluent project finance senior US attorney; counsel to partner level

Beijing – native Mandarin fluent fund formation / corporate mix US associate; 2 to 5 years experience

Hong Kong – fund formation US associate (Mandarin preferred, but English only ok); 2 to 8 years experience (several openings)

Hong Kong – cap markets US associate (English only ok); mid-level

Hong Kong – native Mandarin fluent banking / finance US associate; 2 to 5 years experience (several openings)

Hong Kong – FCPA / white collar / litigation US associate (Mandarin preferred but not required); mid-level experience

Hong Kong – US or UK qualified regulatory/anti-corruption associate (English-only OK); mid to senior level experience

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent US cap markets / M&A associates; junior to senior levels (several openings)

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent M&A US associate; 2 to 4 years experience

Hong Kong – senior cap markets US associate (English only ok) for Pan Asia practice with strong Philippines and India focus; 5 to 9 years experience

Hong Kong (and eventually Seoul) – native Korean fluent US senior cap markets / M&A associate for counsel or partner role (multiple openings)

Hong Kong – Mandarin fluent senior banking US associate; 6 to 10 years of experience

Hong Kong – Mandarin fluent derivatives and structured finance US associate; mid to senior level

Hong Kong – Mandarin fluent energy / LNG US associate; 3 to 5 years experience

The US and UK biglaw associate lateral hiring market in Hong Kong / China continues to pick up. We are expecting a mini-boom of US associate hiring in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, and Singapore during the first quarter of ’11. The reason is twofold: a) Hong Kong / China has been a very busy market for more than a year now and most firms are understaffed; and b) numerous US and UK firms in Hong Kong / China have, for the first time since mid ’08, a full “green light” from their global firm management to make US associate lateral hires.

Some of our clients, for example, were able to make one hire here and there during ’10 in Hong Kong / China, but were not able to obtain a full green light to hire as needed by any means (getting clearance from firm management to make each hire was understandably a long process, due to the still shaky US and Europe markets). Recently, some of these firms have been given clearance to hire multiple US associates in Hong Kong / China, in some cases as many as 7 to 10, with most top US and UK firms planning to hire at least 2 in early ’11. While the hiring markets in US and Europe are still shaky, firms’ global management can no longer ignore the long run of heavy deal flow in Hong Kong / China and their offices and partners in the region being understaffed. Naturally, in an end of calendar year period, where budgets for the following year are figured out, the full green lights for Hong Kong / China lateral hiring are coming in bunches recently.

The interview process in ’10 in Asia has been mostly long-winded due to the abundance of great candidates on the market, most firms having to go through a long process internally to get clearance to give an offer, and firms knowing their competitors are also not moving quickly with offers. In the first quarter of ’11, we are expecting firms in Hong Kong / China to move a lot quicker with US associate hiring process and also be a little less selective because of the larger number of openings putting pressure on the market. Some partners have had serious staffing pressures throughout ’10 and they are going to want to hire quickly now that they have the clearance to do so.

If you would like to learn more about these or other openings and / or the Asia markets in general, as always please feel free to contact us at asia@kinneyrecruiting.com.

We would like to wish all of our readers a wonderful holiday season and Happy New Year!

Wednesday Worries – Ireland “Fixed” – Who’s Next?


Courtesy of Phil at Phil's Stock World 


So many things are pissing me off today.  


I got my political outrage out of the way in my earlier post: "Thanks for the Gas Money, Mr. President," so we don't need to talk about that again. Ireland, as of 7:45, has not actually voted to accept the EU's deal, which will pull $20,000 per Irish family directly from national pension funds to pay for the speculative mistakes of Irish Banks.  Additionally, the Irish people are being asked to borrow another $75,000 per family from the EU at about 6% interest, also to pay for the speculative mistakes made by the Irish Banks.  While this may seem insane - it's only a drop in the bucket compared to what Americans are spending to bail out our own speculators so why shouldn't they join the club?  


At least Ireland gets to vote for their obligations, we have a Federal Reserve System where a single man, known as "The Bernank" is able to spend what is now heading towards $3.5Tn of OUR MONEY to bail out his banking buddies.  That's $31,818 per American family spent over two years IN ADDITION to the stuff I complained about Obama and our spineless Government spending in the last post.  


As I said, things are pissing me off today!  I should be in a better mood - we had a fabulous day trading in Member Chat yesterday.  In yesterday's post, I closed with "One last stab at making some bearish profits for us (see Morning Alert)" and you can click on that Alert, which was posted on Seeking Alpha and check out our trade ideas for the $10,000 to $50,000 Portfolio which included (at 7:22 am yesterday) QID Jan $10 calls, which opened at $1.80 and finished at $2 (up 11%), DIA Dec $114 puts, which opened at .80 and finished at $1.33 (up 66%), XRT Jan $44 puts, which opened at .35 and finished at .55 (up 57%), USO Jan $36 puts, which opened at .66 and finished at .90 (up 36%), PCLN weekly $400 puts, which opened at $.50 and finished at $1.40 (up 180%) and NFLX Jan $155 puts, which opened at $1.70 and finished at $2.30 (up 35%) but should look much better this morning, where we will exit.  


Of course I featured the idea to short NFLX last Thursday in the Morning Post (which you would get at 8:30 every morning in progress if you subscribed!) and we talked about shorting oil in the Weekend Post and I mentioned XRT last week as well so it's not like these are even our "super-secret" trade ideas - this is just the stuff that looked obvious enough to risk our small portfolio plays on (as you don't want to take too much risk in a small portfolio, even when it is aggressive like our virtual $10,000 Portfolio).  Once we got into Member Chat for the morning we went with more aggressive trade ideas like PCLN weekly $410 puts at $1.60, which finished the day at $4.20 (up 162%) and 6 other plays that we're not done with yet plus shorts on the oil futures at $90 that worked out very well.   


So why am I angry?  You can't really have a better day than we had yesterday.  Yesterday is the reason we have sat patiently (well kind of patiently) in cash for a month as we finally got an opportunity to commit to a whole bunch of very obvious trades, the most trade ideas I've had in a single day since early September, when we jumped on Uncle Ben's bullish bandwagon.   Sure we find things to trade every day but these are the opportunities we wait for.  I guess I'm pissed because we had to pull our December short plays off the table because the cartoon bears have warned us that they will be "Buying the F'ing Dips" and we know better than to argue with cartoon bears because it's simplistic little BS premises like that that rule this market.  Ah, that's why I'm angry!  


As I keep saying, I don't enjoy day trading - it's not satisfying but it's what we do while we wait for real investment opportunities to come along.  While it may be exciting to make 100% on a trade in a single day - it's small money and a tedious (and stressful) way to build up a portfolio.  I suppose at heart, I'm a long-term investing coupon-clipper but those kind of investors are being chewed up and spit out in this market and, while we found many, many things to buy earlier in the year, now we're down to one or two long-term opportunities a day while most of the rest of the market looks better as a short.


But you can't even stay short past the closing bell.  Even as I write this post our paranoia in taking the money and running (our usual strategy) on our quick gains is looking justified as the dollar is, as usual, being shoved off it's overnight highs (used to prop up the Nikkei in our famous "3am Trade") during the slower EU lunch break in order to now goose the US futures to give US markets the best possible open on the least possible amount of volume (ergo cost to the Gang of 12).  Despite debasement efforts by Obama and The Bernank yesterday, the dollar still rose back to 80.81 in overnight trading and that sent the Dow futures all the way down to 11,285 but don't despair - they've already been goosed back to 11,350 - just 5 points shy of yesterday's weak close.  


See, in a "normal" market we would have simply stayed short because clearly the momentum was down and the fundamentals indicate that all the efforts of Obama, The Bernank, the BOJ, the BOC, the ECB... are "too little, too late" to put the Humpty Dumpty global economy back together again.  Some of the fundamentals we're watching:  



  • German exports declined in October

  • Machinery orders fell in Japan for October.

  • Speculators are holding the largest commodity positions on record, up 13% from 2008 highs. 

  • Oil is in a GLUT, with demand off a cliff.   

  • Mortgage Applications are falling again

  • 15 US States face a $26.7Bn mid-year budget gap

  • The EU is passing tough banking regulations

  • Our Government is expanding the insider trading investigation

  • China is likely to hike interest rates.

  • Mortgage Bond yields have leaped to 6-month highs.

  • Italy's budget plan is forcing a "no-confidence" vote for Berlusconi

  • US Retailers are cutting earnings forecasts and sitting on big inventories.


These are just TODAY'S headlines and they all add up to RISK.  Lack of risk recognition by the markets was the primary reason I called for cash in early November.  We are approaching 2008 pre-crash market highs with many stock trading higher than they were then on LESS revenues than they had at the time.  Meanwhile, 10% of our population is unemployed, consumer credit is down by over $1,000,000,000 (15%), household wealth is down 20% and income is down while the CPI, even by BS Government measures, is up 5% since then, effectively giving those people who still have jobs 5% less to spend anyway.  


And when you consider that discretionary income is just 20% of income - if the 80% they HAVE to spend went up 5%, then that's 4% of discretionary income gone, which is 20% of discretionary income out the window - FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL WORKING.  The other 10% have ZERO to spend and that's not good either.  All of this is being ignored as "investors" buy stocks on the hopes that they will expand sales internationally and keep cutting costs despite the same inflation the speculators are using to justify their very high valuations.  We're effectively writing off the US economy and placing all of our bullish eggs in the global basket - even though they have 20% unemployment "over there." - that's kind of nuts, don't you think?



I'm not even going to ask if the above 

chart (from Calculated Risk) disturbs you

. Clearly, from the results of the last election, it does not.  We are over 6M jobs away from recovery and we added less than 40,000 last month.  At least in Ireland, their population is shrinking, with 65,500 people (1.5%) abandoning the sinking ship as of April of this year.  That's less likely to happen in America as Mexico is not that attractive and Canada doesn't want us and most people can't afford to move anyway as they are upside down on their mortgages so we, as a people, sit and wait.  We sit and wait for something good to happen.  Any minute now...  Something good is bound to happen... NOW!   OK, maybe not now but really soon - something good has got to happen, right?  

 

That pretty much sums up our national policy - we don't actually do anything to create jobs but if we sprinkle enough magical fairy money on the rich, we're sure they'll start hiring people real soon!  Maybe as soon as they are done merging and acquiring smaller companies with all that money where they then create efficiencies by laying off 50,000 people a month (Challenger Job Cut Report) while more and more jobs are outsourced every day ($6Tn worth of jobs are currently outsourced).  And why not?  There are huge tax advantages to outsourcing US jobs - tax advantages that our President is perpetuating as he bends over and accepts the massive Republican tax cuts for the wealthy on behalf of the American people. 

 


Did I mention I was pissed?  Good, then moving along...  


So we kept our Jan shorts and didn't add any longs because we expect a bounce on the usual opening nonsense but I don't see enough dry powder left for the bulls to take us over that critical Dow 11,500 mark.  Meanwhile, CAT is way too high and they are a Dow component, as are XOM, CVX, IBM and MCD - all stocks that are major components in the price-weighted Dow and are more likely to pull back than move higher.  


EU money printing will not inflate our stocks - it may even boost the Buck and that would be bad for commodities, who had a pretty rough day yesterday (and we shorted a few).  I wish it were easier and I wish we could just say "CAT is overbought so we're going short" but the fundamentals of the stock are trumped by rumors of infinite Chinese demand and inflation expectations that somehow ignore the negative impact of rising steel prices and increasing borrowing costs on the company.  Of course the weak-dollar expectations have everyone moving into stocks, which are just another form of commodity to trade and, even as I write this, the dollar is being jammed back below 80.50 to goose the US open.  


At least we know how this game is rigged and we can have lots of fun betting the suckers never do find that red queen but what a shame that this is what the global economy has been reduced to - a shell game - and it's an empty shell at that! 


robert shumake detroit

Are Korea's “Bending” away from Bluster? « Liveshots

LONDON After a 2010 that saw the Korean peninsula edge towards the brink of nuclear Armageddon,

CNN&#39;s John Roberts Joining Fox <b>News</b> | John Roberts | Mediaite

CNN's John Roberts is expected to join FOX News Channel as a senior national correspondent based in Atlanta and will be reporting on major domestic and international stories for the network. Roberts came up the ranks of CBS News, ...

John Roberts switches to FOX <b>News</b> | Inside TV | EW.com

John Roberts, the veteran newsman who co-hosted CNN's American Morning for three years, is joining the competition. “We are excited to welcome Jo...


robert shumake detroit

Are Korea&#39;s “Bending” away from Bluster? « Liveshots

LONDON After a 2010 that saw the Korean peninsula edge towards the brink of nuclear Armageddon,

CNN&#39;s John Roberts Joining Fox <b>News</b> | John Roberts | Mediaite

CNN's John Roberts is expected to join FOX News Channel as a senior national correspondent based in Atlanta and will be reporting on major domestic and international stories for the network. Roberts came up the ranks of CBS News, ...

John Roberts switches to FOX <b>News</b> | Inside TV | EW.com

John Roberts, the veteran newsman who co-hosted CNN's American Morning for three years, is joining the competition. “We are excited to welcome Jo...


robert shumake detroit
style="text-align: center;">

/> [style="text-decoration: underline;">Ed. note: This post is authored by Evan Jowers and Robert Kinney of Kinney Recruiting, sponsor of the Asia Chronicles. Kinney has made more placements of U.S. associates and partners in Asia than any other firm in the past four years. You can reach them by email: asia at kinneyrecruiting dot com.]

Evan Jowers here, with a quick post before the New Year holiday. As you know from our recent posts, Robert Kinney and I have continued our pattern this year of traveling to Hong Kong / China to meet personally with clients and learn of openings (six trips each this year – ouch). Alexis Lamb of course is permanently based in our Hong Kong office and Yuliya Vinokurova travels to Asia periodically from her base in Russia. As a result of our availability to firms and more importantly our success in placing more US attorneys in Asia than any other recruiting firm, we are on top of many US associate openings at present in Hong Kong/China.

As you know from recent posts, we have many current openings for Mandarin fluent cap markets and M&A US associates (too numerous to list here). As the year winds to a close, we wanted to list in one place a description of some of our more unusual openings for US associates at top US and UK firms in Hong Kong / China:

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent private equity fund formation US associate; 2 to 5 years experience

Shanghai – native Mandarin fluent IP transactional US associate; mid to senior level

Hong Kong or Singapore – US securities / high yield / M&A mix US associate (English only ok); 4 to 7 years experience (the successful candidate will have his/her choice of Hong Kong or Singapore location)

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent private equity M&A US associate; 2 to 6 years experience

Hong Kong, Beijing or Shanghai – native Mandarin fluent US senior capital markets associate for counsel or partner role (several openings); very senior associate with top firm experience in China and NYC preferred

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent project finance US associate; 3 to 6 years experience

Beijing – native Mandarin fluent finance associate; junior to mid-level (multiple openings)id="more-50781">

Hong Kong – leveraged / acquisition finance; Hong Kong, UK or US qualification; Mandarin preferred; 2 to 5 years experienced

Hong Kong – acquisition finance US associate / counsel (English only fine, but Mandarin a nice bonus); senior associate / counsel level

Hong Kong – US project finance associate; Mandarin preferred; 3 to 6 years experience

Beijing – native Mandarin fluent project finance senior US attorney; counsel to partner level

Beijing – native Mandarin fluent fund formation / corporate mix US associate; 2 to 5 years experience

Hong Kong – fund formation US associate (Mandarin preferred, but English only ok); 2 to 8 years experience (several openings)

Hong Kong – cap markets US associate (English only ok); mid-level

Hong Kong – native Mandarin fluent banking / finance US associate; 2 to 5 years experience (several openings)

Hong Kong – FCPA / white collar / litigation US associate (Mandarin preferred but not required); mid-level experience

Hong Kong – US or UK qualified regulatory/anti-corruption associate (English-only OK); mid to senior level experience

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent US cap markets / M&A associates; junior to senior levels (several openings)

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent M&A US associate; 2 to 4 years experience

Hong Kong – senior cap markets US associate (English only ok) for Pan Asia practice with strong Philippines and India focus; 5 to 9 years experience

Hong Kong (and eventually Seoul) – native Korean fluent US senior cap markets / M&A associate for counsel or partner role (multiple openings)

Hong Kong – Mandarin fluent senior banking US associate; 6 to 10 years of experience

Hong Kong – Mandarin fluent derivatives and structured finance US associate; mid to senior level

Hong Kong – Mandarin fluent energy / LNG US associate; 3 to 5 years experience

The US and UK biglaw associate lateral hiring market in Hong Kong / China continues to pick up. We are expecting a mini-boom of US associate hiring in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, and Singapore during the first quarter of ’11. The reason is twofold: a) Hong Kong / China has been a very busy market for more than a year now and most firms are understaffed; and b) numerous US and UK firms in Hong Kong / China have, for the first time since mid ’08, a full “green light” from their global firm management to make US associate lateral hires.

Some of our clients, for example, were able to make one hire here and there during ’10 in Hong Kong / China, but were not able to obtain a full green light to hire as needed by any means (getting clearance from firm management to make each hire was understandably a long process, due to the still shaky US and Europe markets). Recently, some of these firms have been given clearance to hire multiple US associates in Hong Kong / China, in some cases as many as 7 to 10, with most top US and UK firms planning to hire at least 2 in early ’11. While the hiring markets in US and Europe are still shaky, firms’ global management can no longer ignore the long run of heavy deal flow in Hong Kong / China and their offices and partners in the region being understaffed. Naturally, in an end of calendar year period, where budgets for the following year are figured out, the full green lights for Hong Kong / China lateral hiring are coming in bunches recently.

The interview process in ’10 in Asia has been mostly long-winded due to the abundance of great candidates on the market, most firms having to go through a long process internally to get clearance to give an offer, and firms knowing their competitors are also not moving quickly with offers. In the first quarter of ’11, we are expecting firms in Hong Kong / China to move a lot quicker with US associate hiring process and also be a little less selective because of the larger number of openings putting pressure on the market. Some partners have had serious staffing pressures throughout ’10 and they are going to want to hire quickly now that they have the clearance to do so.

If you would like to learn more about these or other openings and / or the Asia markets in general, as always please feel free to contact us at asia@kinneyrecruiting.com.

We would like to wish all of our readers a wonderful holiday season and Happy New Year!

Wednesday Worries – Ireland “Fixed” – Who’s Next?


Courtesy of Phil at Phil's Stock World 


So many things are pissing me off today.  


I got my political outrage out of the way in my earlier post: "Thanks for the Gas Money, Mr. President," so we don't need to talk about that again. Ireland, as of 7:45, has not actually voted to accept the EU's deal, which will pull $20,000 per Irish family directly from national pension funds to pay for the speculative mistakes of Irish Banks.  Additionally, the Irish people are being asked to borrow another $75,000 per family from the EU at about 6% interest, also to pay for the speculative mistakes made by the Irish Banks.  While this may seem insane - it's only a drop in the bucket compared to what Americans are spending to bail out our own speculators so why shouldn't they join the club?  


At least Ireland gets to vote for their obligations, we have a Federal Reserve System where a single man, known as "The Bernank" is able to spend what is now heading towards $3.5Tn of OUR MONEY to bail out his banking buddies.  That's $31,818 per American family spent over two years IN ADDITION to the stuff I complained about Obama and our spineless Government spending in the last post.  


As I said, things are pissing me off today!  I should be in a better mood - we had a fabulous day trading in Member Chat yesterday.  In yesterday's post, I closed with "One last stab at making some bearish profits for us (see Morning Alert)" and you can click on that Alert, which was posted on Seeking Alpha and check out our trade ideas for the $10,000 to $50,000 Portfolio which included (at 7:22 am yesterday) QID Jan $10 calls, which opened at $1.80 and finished at $2 (up 11%), DIA Dec $114 puts, which opened at .80 and finished at $1.33 (up 66%), XRT Jan $44 puts, which opened at .35 and finished at .55 (up 57%), USO Jan $36 puts, which opened at .66 and finished at .90 (up 36%), PCLN weekly $400 puts, which opened at $.50 and finished at $1.40 (up 180%) and NFLX Jan $155 puts, which opened at $1.70 and finished at $2.30 (up 35%) but should look much better this morning, where we will exit.  


Of course I featured the idea to short NFLX last Thursday in the Morning Post (which you would get at 8:30 every morning in progress if you subscribed!) and we talked about shorting oil in the Weekend Post and I mentioned XRT last week as well so it's not like these are even our "super-secret" trade ideas - this is just the stuff that looked obvious enough to risk our small portfolio plays on (as you don't want to take too much risk in a small portfolio, even when it is aggressive like our virtual $10,000 Portfolio).  Once we got into Member Chat for the morning we went with more aggressive trade ideas like PCLN weekly $410 puts at $1.60, which finished the day at $4.20 (up 162%) and 6 other plays that we're not done with yet plus shorts on the oil futures at $90 that worked out very well.   


So why am I angry?  You can't really have a better day than we had yesterday.  Yesterday is the reason we have sat patiently (well kind of patiently) in cash for a month as we finally got an opportunity to commit to a whole bunch of very obvious trades, the most trade ideas I've had in a single day since early September, when we jumped on Uncle Ben's bullish bandwagon.   Sure we find things to trade every day but these are the opportunities we wait for.  I guess I'm pissed because we had to pull our December short plays off the table because the cartoon bears have warned us that they will be "Buying the F'ing Dips" and we know better than to argue with cartoon bears because it's simplistic little BS premises like that that rule this market.  Ah, that's why I'm angry!  


As I keep saying, I don't enjoy day trading - it's not satisfying but it's what we do while we wait for real investment opportunities to come along.  While it may be exciting to make 100% on a trade in a single day - it's small money and a tedious (and stressful) way to build up a portfolio.  I suppose at heart, I'm a long-term investing coupon-clipper but those kind of investors are being chewed up and spit out in this market and, while we found many, many things to buy earlier in the year, now we're down to one or two long-term opportunities a day while most of the rest of the market looks better as a short.


But you can't even stay short past the closing bell.  Even as I write this post our paranoia in taking the money and running (our usual strategy) on our quick gains is looking justified as the dollar is, as usual, being shoved off it's overnight highs (used to prop up the Nikkei in our famous "3am Trade") during the slower EU lunch break in order to now goose the US futures to give US markets the best possible open on the least possible amount of volume (ergo cost to the Gang of 12).  Despite debasement efforts by Obama and The Bernank yesterday, the dollar still rose back to 80.81 in overnight trading and that sent the Dow futures all the way down to 11,285 but don't despair - they've already been goosed back to 11,350 - just 5 points shy of yesterday's weak close.  


See, in a "normal" market we would have simply stayed short because clearly the momentum was down and the fundamentals indicate that all the efforts of Obama, The Bernank, the BOJ, the BOC, the ECB... are "too little, too late" to put the Humpty Dumpty global economy back together again.  Some of the fundamentals we're watching:  



  • German exports declined in October

  • Machinery orders fell in Japan for October.

  • Speculators are holding the largest commodity positions on record, up 13% from 2008 highs. 

  • Oil is in a GLUT, with demand off a cliff.   

  • Mortgage Applications are falling again

  • 15 US States face a $26.7Bn mid-year budget gap

  • The EU is passing tough banking regulations

  • Our Government is expanding the insider trading investigation

  • China is likely to hike interest rates.

  • Mortgage Bond yields have leaped to 6-month highs.

  • Italy's budget plan is forcing a "no-confidence" vote for Berlusconi

  • US Retailers are cutting earnings forecasts and sitting on big inventories.


These are just TODAY'S headlines and they all add up to RISK.  Lack of risk recognition by the markets was the primary reason I called for cash in early November.  We are approaching 2008 pre-crash market highs with many stock trading higher than they were then on LESS revenues than they had at the time.  Meanwhile, 10% of our population is unemployed, consumer credit is down by over $1,000,000,000 (15%), household wealth is down 20% and income is down while the CPI, even by BS Government measures, is up 5% since then, effectively giving those people who still have jobs 5% less to spend anyway.  


And when you consider that discretionary income is just 20% of income - if the 80% they HAVE to spend went up 5%, then that's 4% of discretionary income gone, which is 20% of discretionary income out the window - FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL WORKING.  The other 10% have ZERO to spend and that's not good either.  All of this is being ignored as "investors" buy stocks on the hopes that they will expand sales internationally and keep cutting costs despite the same inflation the speculators are using to justify their very high valuations.  We're effectively writing off the US economy and placing all of our bullish eggs in the global basket - even though they have 20% unemployment "over there." - that's kind of nuts, don't you think?



I'm not even going to ask if the above 

chart (from Calculated Risk) disturbs you

. Clearly, from the results of the last election, it does not.  We are over 6M jobs away from recovery and we added less than 40,000 last month.  At least in Ireland, their population is shrinking, with 65,500 people (1.5%) abandoning the sinking ship as of April of this year.  That's less likely to happen in America as Mexico is not that attractive and Canada doesn't want us and most people can't afford to move anyway as they are upside down on their mortgages so we, as a people, sit and wait.  We sit and wait for something good to happen.  Any minute now...  Something good is bound to happen... NOW!   OK, maybe not now but really soon - something good has got to happen, right?  

 

That pretty much sums up our national policy - we don't actually do anything to create jobs but if we sprinkle enough magical fairy money on the rich, we're sure they'll start hiring people real soon!  Maybe as soon as they are done merging and acquiring smaller companies with all that money where they then create efficiencies by laying off 50,000 people a month (Challenger Job Cut Report) while more and more jobs are outsourced every day ($6Tn worth of jobs are currently outsourced).  And why not?  There are huge tax advantages to outsourcing US jobs - tax advantages that our President is perpetuating as he bends over and accepts the massive Republican tax cuts for the wealthy on behalf of the American people. 

 


Did I mention I was pissed?  Good, then moving along...  


So we kept our Jan shorts and didn't add any longs because we expect a bounce on the usual opening nonsense but I don't see enough dry powder left for the bulls to take us over that critical Dow 11,500 mark.  Meanwhile, CAT is way too high and they are a Dow component, as are XOM, CVX, IBM and MCD - all stocks that are major components in the price-weighted Dow and are more likely to pull back than move higher.  


EU money printing will not inflate our stocks - it may even boost the Buck and that would be bad for commodities, who had a pretty rough day yesterday (and we shorted a few).  I wish it were easier and I wish we could just say "CAT is overbought so we're going short" but the fundamentals of the stock are trumped by rumors of infinite Chinese demand and inflation expectations that somehow ignore the negative impact of rising steel prices and increasing borrowing costs on the company.  Of course the weak-dollar expectations have everyone moving into stocks, which are just another form of commodity to trade and, even as I write this, the dollar is being jammed back below 80.50 to goose the US open.  


At least we know how this game is rigged and we can have lots of fun betting the suckers never do find that red queen but what a shame that this is what the global economy has been reduced to - a shell game - and it's an empty shell at that! 


robert shumake

2009 Houston Texans Training Camp by kahl4


robert shumake

Are Korea&#39;s “Bending” away from Bluster? « Liveshots

LONDON After a 2010 that saw the Korean peninsula edge towards the brink of nuclear Armageddon,

CNN&#39;s John Roberts Joining Fox <b>News</b> | John Roberts | Mediaite

CNN's John Roberts is expected to join FOX News Channel as a senior national correspondent based in Atlanta and will be reporting on major domestic and international stories for the network. Roberts came up the ranks of CBS News, ...

John Roberts switches to FOX <b>News</b> | Inside TV | EW.com

John Roberts, the veteran newsman who co-hosted CNN's American Morning for three years, is joining the competition. “We are excited to welcome Jo...


robert shumake

Are Korea&#39;s “Bending” away from Bluster? « Liveshots

LONDON After a 2010 that saw the Korean peninsula edge towards the brink of nuclear Armageddon,

CNN&#39;s John Roberts Joining Fox <b>News</b> | John Roberts | Mediaite

CNN's John Roberts is expected to join FOX News Channel as a senior national correspondent based in Atlanta and will be reporting on major domestic and international stories for the network. Roberts came up the ranks of CBS News, ...

John Roberts switches to FOX <b>News</b> | Inside TV | EW.com

John Roberts, the veteran newsman who co-hosted CNN's American Morning for three years, is joining the competition. “We are excited to welcome Jo...


robert shumake detroit

Whether you're part of the continuing exodus fleeing increased fees and reduced revenue at eBay or are just looking for a business you can start the old-fashioned way with sweat equity, there are ways to make money online without totally relying on eBay.

Getting Started

Many former eBay sellers are settling in well at Ecrater.com. Ecrater offers free estore hosting, free sub domain name and a choice of prebuilt web templates.

Complete the simple registration form and confirm your registration via the followup email. Once you've confirmed registration, you're ready to set up shop and start selling. If you have more than 100 actual inventory items to list, you can use the bulk loader and upload them all at once. Items will appear in Froogle. Bulk listing isn't available for those using dropshippers or promoting affiliate products. Adult products are allowed.

Newbies

If you are totally new to making money online with ecommerce, there's plenty of help to be found in the Ecrater frequently asked questions, the forum and the getting started help section. The simplicity of Ecrater makes it a good starting place for beginners.

Need Inventory?

Need something to sell in order to make money? There are wholesalers on Ecrater if you prefer to stock inventory and do your own packing and shipping.
If you'd rather let someone else handle shipping, Ecrater recommends Doba and World Wide Brands for locating reliable dropshippers.

Making money means processing payments. Ecrater provides payment options including Paypal and Google checkout. Google also provides a shopping cart, another important feature of selling online.

Is Free Really the Way to Go?

Internet marketing gurus swear that you should avoid free hosting. That's easy for them to say. One, they've made enough money hosting and selling domains that they can afford professional stores, and two, when vendors take advantage of free hosting, they aren't making monthly payments to the gurus.

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So how do you make money online with free stores and avoid the oblivion risk? Get your own domain name and use that name at the free site.

Example: Your store name is Pat's Pet Products. You register PatsPetProducts.com. Domain names can be found for as little as $9 a year. When you set up your Ecrater store, use Pat's Pet Products. Your store address will look something like this: http//wwwpatspetproducts.ecrater.com

If Ecrater goes out of business for some reason, customers will still find it easy to find you because your name remains. You can get hosting for your domain name and continue making money.

Sweat Equity

The sweat equity you'll be putting in? Promoting your store. Getting traffic. Blogs, free classifieds, press releases, email and everything else you can think of. If you've already established a presence with your store name and can continue using it, you'll gain ground faster. Building traffic isn't easy but it can be done. Don't forget to email existing customers and let them know where you've moved. Offer moving specials and encourage customers to tell friends and family members.

Multiple Sites

Have several interests? You can open multiple Ecrater stores. You will need a separate email address to register each store. You can use the same order notification email address for all of your stores, simplifying order fulfillment.

Life After eBay

It is possible to make money online after Bay. Change is rarely easy and if you're a seller who's been with eBay for a long time, you may be reluctant to step out on your own. Ecrater.com makes it possible to take that step without paying heavy moving expenses. You can even keep your Ebay seller name at Ecrater if it isn't already in use.

Some sellers are using eBay on a limited basis to drive traffic to their new Ecrater stores. They've slashed their eBay listings to a minimum and are using both listings and the About Me page to generate traffic to Ecrater and continue to sell online without paying so much in fees.

Powersellersunite.com is a community created to help former eBay sellers find alternative sites. They offer advice, tips, tools and support. Membership is free. You do not have to be a powerseller (or former powerseller) to join.

If you're considering a change or just want to try your hand at running an online store, give Ecrater a try. If you're experienced in personalizing websites, Ecrater may not be for you. No HTML is allowed. However, you can take advantage of another free store hosting service where you can customize things more to your liking. Get the scoop in Part II.



robert shumake detroit

Are Korea&#39;s “Bending” away from Bluster? « Liveshots

LONDON After a 2010 that saw the Korean peninsula edge towards the brink of nuclear Armageddon,

CNN&#39;s John Roberts Joining Fox <b>News</b> | John Roberts | Mediaite

CNN's John Roberts is expected to join FOX News Channel as a senior national correspondent based in Atlanta and will be reporting on major domestic and international stories for the network. Roberts came up the ranks of CBS News, ...

John Roberts switches to FOX <b>News</b> | Inside TV | EW.com

John Roberts, the veteran newsman who co-hosted CNN's American Morning for three years, is joining the competition. “We are excited to welcome Jo...


robert shumake

2009 Houston Texans Training Camp by kahl4


robert shumake detroit
style="text-align: center;">

/> [style="text-decoration: underline;">Ed. note: This post is authored by Evan Jowers and Robert Kinney of Kinney Recruiting, sponsor of the Asia Chronicles. Kinney has made more placements of U.S. associates and partners in Asia than any other firm in the past four years. You can reach them by email: asia at kinneyrecruiting dot com.]

Evan Jowers here, with a quick post before the New Year holiday. As you know from our recent posts, Robert Kinney and I have continued our pattern this year of traveling to Hong Kong / China to meet personally with clients and learn of openings (six trips each this year – ouch). Alexis Lamb of course is permanently based in our Hong Kong office and Yuliya Vinokurova travels to Asia periodically from her base in Russia. As a result of our availability to firms and more importantly our success in placing more US attorneys in Asia than any other recruiting firm, we are on top of many US associate openings at present in Hong Kong/China.

As you know from recent posts, we have many current openings for Mandarin fluent cap markets and M&A US associates (too numerous to list here). As the year winds to a close, we wanted to list in one place a description of some of our more unusual openings for US associates at top US and UK firms in Hong Kong / China:

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent private equity fund formation US associate; 2 to 5 years experience

Shanghai – native Mandarin fluent IP transactional US associate; mid to senior level

Hong Kong or Singapore – US securities / high yield / M&A mix US associate (English only ok); 4 to 7 years experience (the successful candidate will have his/her choice of Hong Kong or Singapore location)

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent private equity M&A US associate; 2 to 6 years experience

Hong Kong, Beijing or Shanghai – native Mandarin fluent US senior capital markets associate for counsel or partner role (several openings); very senior associate with top firm experience in China and NYC preferred

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent project finance US associate; 3 to 6 years experience

Beijing – native Mandarin fluent finance associate; junior to mid-level (multiple openings)id="more-50781">

Hong Kong – leveraged / acquisition finance; Hong Kong, UK or US qualification; Mandarin preferred; 2 to 5 years experienced

Hong Kong – acquisition finance US associate / counsel (English only fine, but Mandarin a nice bonus); senior associate / counsel level

Hong Kong – US project finance associate; Mandarin preferred; 3 to 6 years experience

Beijing – native Mandarin fluent project finance senior US attorney; counsel to partner level

Beijing – native Mandarin fluent fund formation / corporate mix US associate; 2 to 5 years experience

Hong Kong – fund formation US associate (Mandarin preferred, but English only ok); 2 to 8 years experience (several openings)

Hong Kong – cap markets US associate (English only ok); mid-level

Hong Kong – native Mandarin fluent banking / finance US associate; 2 to 5 years experience (several openings)

Hong Kong – FCPA / white collar / litigation US associate (Mandarin preferred but not required); mid-level experience

Hong Kong – US or UK qualified regulatory/anti-corruption associate (English-only OK); mid to senior level experience

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent US cap markets / M&A associates; junior to senior levels (several openings)

Hong Kong – native Korean fluent M&A US associate; 2 to 4 years experience

Hong Kong – senior cap markets US associate (English only ok) for Pan Asia practice with strong Philippines and India focus; 5 to 9 years experience

Hong Kong (and eventually Seoul) – native Korean fluent US senior cap markets / M&A associate for counsel or partner role (multiple openings)

Hong Kong – Mandarin fluent senior banking US associate; 6 to 10 years of experience

Hong Kong – Mandarin fluent derivatives and structured finance US associate; mid to senior level

Hong Kong – Mandarin fluent energy / LNG US associate; 3 to 5 years experience

The US and UK biglaw associate lateral hiring market in Hong Kong / China continues to pick up. We are expecting a mini-boom of US associate hiring in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, and Singapore during the first quarter of ’11. The reason is twofold: a) Hong Kong / China has been a very busy market for more than a year now and most firms are understaffed; and b) numerous US and UK firms in Hong Kong / China have, for the first time since mid ’08, a full “green light” from their global firm management to make US associate lateral hires.

Some of our clients, for example, were able to make one hire here and there during ’10 in Hong Kong / China, but were not able to obtain a full green light to hire as needed by any means (getting clearance from firm management to make each hire was understandably a long process, due to the still shaky US and Europe markets). Recently, some of these firms have been given clearance to hire multiple US associates in Hong Kong / China, in some cases as many as 7 to 10, with most top US and UK firms planning to hire at least 2 in early ’11. While the hiring markets in US and Europe are still shaky, firms’ global management can no longer ignore the long run of heavy deal flow in Hong Kong / China and their offices and partners in the region being understaffed. Naturally, in an end of calendar year period, where budgets for the following year are figured out, the full green lights for Hong Kong / China lateral hiring are coming in bunches recently.

The interview process in ’10 in Asia has been mostly long-winded due to the abundance of great candidates on the market, most firms having to go through a long process internally to get clearance to give an offer, and firms knowing their competitors are also not moving quickly with offers. In the first quarter of ’11, we are expecting firms in Hong Kong / China to move a lot quicker with US associate hiring process and also be a little less selective because of the larger number of openings putting pressure on the market. Some partners have had serious staffing pressures throughout ’10 and they are going to want to hire quickly now that they have the clearance to do so.

If you would like to learn more about these or other openings and / or the Asia markets in general, as always please feel free to contact us at asia@kinneyrecruiting.com.

We would like to wish all of our readers a wonderful holiday season and Happy New Year!

Wednesday Worries – Ireland “Fixed” – Who’s Next?


Courtesy of Phil at Phil's Stock World 


So many things are pissing me off today.  


I got my political outrage out of the way in my earlier post: "Thanks for the Gas Money, Mr. President," so we don't need to talk about that again. Ireland, as of 7:45, has not actually voted to accept the EU's deal, which will pull $20,000 per Irish family directly from national pension funds to pay for the speculative mistakes of Irish Banks.  Additionally, the Irish people are being asked to borrow another $75,000 per family from the EU at about 6% interest, also to pay for the speculative mistakes made by the Irish Banks.  While this may seem insane - it's only a drop in the bucket compared to what Americans are spending to bail out our own speculators so why shouldn't they join the club?  


At least Ireland gets to vote for their obligations, we have a Federal Reserve System where a single man, known as "The Bernank" is able to spend what is now heading towards $3.5Tn of OUR MONEY to bail out his banking buddies.  That's $31,818 per American family spent over two years IN ADDITION to the stuff I complained about Obama and our spineless Government spending in the last post.  


As I said, things are pissing me off today!  I should be in a better mood - we had a fabulous day trading in Member Chat yesterday.  In yesterday's post, I closed with "One last stab at making some bearish profits for us (see Morning Alert)" and you can click on that Alert, which was posted on Seeking Alpha and check out our trade ideas for the $10,000 to $50,000 Portfolio which included (at 7:22 am yesterday) QID Jan $10 calls, which opened at $1.80 and finished at $2 (up 11%), DIA Dec $114 puts, which opened at .80 and finished at $1.33 (up 66%), XRT Jan $44 puts, which opened at .35 and finished at .55 (up 57%), USO Jan $36 puts, which opened at .66 and finished at .90 (up 36%), PCLN weekly $400 puts, which opened at $.50 and finished at $1.40 (up 180%) and NFLX Jan $155 puts, which opened at $1.70 and finished at $2.30 (up 35%) but should look much better this morning, where we will exit.  


Of course I featured the idea to short NFLX last Thursday in the Morning Post (which you would get at 8:30 every morning in progress if you subscribed!) and we talked about shorting oil in the Weekend Post and I mentioned XRT last week as well so it's not like these are even our "super-secret" trade ideas - this is just the stuff that looked obvious enough to risk our small portfolio plays on (as you don't want to take too much risk in a small portfolio, even when it is aggressive like our virtual $10,000 Portfolio).  Once we got into Member Chat for the morning we went with more aggressive trade ideas like PCLN weekly $410 puts at $1.60, which finished the day at $4.20 (up 162%) and 6 other plays that we're not done with yet plus shorts on the oil futures at $90 that worked out very well.   


So why am I angry?  You can't really have a better day than we had yesterday.  Yesterday is the reason we have sat patiently (well kind of patiently) in cash for a month as we finally got an opportunity to commit to a whole bunch of very obvious trades, the most trade ideas I've had in a single day since early September, when we jumped on Uncle Ben's bullish bandwagon.   Sure we find things to trade every day but these are the opportunities we wait for.  I guess I'm pissed because we had to pull our December short plays off the table because the cartoon bears have warned us that they will be "Buying the F'ing Dips" and we know better than to argue with cartoon bears because it's simplistic little BS premises like that that rule this market.  Ah, that's why I'm angry!  


As I keep saying, I don't enjoy day trading - it's not satisfying but it's what we do while we wait for real investment opportunities to come along.  While it may be exciting to make 100% on a trade in a single day - it's small money and a tedious (and stressful) way to build up a portfolio.  I suppose at heart, I'm a long-term investing coupon-clipper but those kind of investors are being chewed up and spit out in this market and, while we found many, many things to buy earlier in the year, now we're down to one or two long-term opportunities a day while most of the rest of the market looks better as a short.


But you can't even stay short past the closing bell.  Even as I write this post our paranoia in taking the money and running (our usual strategy) on our quick gains is looking justified as the dollar is, as usual, being shoved off it's overnight highs (used to prop up the Nikkei in our famous "3am Trade") during the slower EU lunch break in order to now goose the US futures to give US markets the best possible open on the least possible amount of volume (ergo cost to the Gang of 12).  Despite debasement efforts by Obama and The Bernank yesterday, the dollar still rose back to 80.81 in overnight trading and that sent the Dow futures all the way down to 11,285 but don't despair - they've already been goosed back to 11,350 - just 5 points shy of yesterday's weak close.  


See, in a "normal" market we would have simply stayed short because clearly the momentum was down and the fundamentals indicate that all the efforts of Obama, The Bernank, the BOJ, the BOC, the ECB... are "too little, too late" to put the Humpty Dumpty global economy back together again.  Some of the fundamentals we're watching:  



  • German exports declined in October

  • Machinery orders fell in Japan for October.

  • Speculators are holding the largest commodity positions on record, up 13% from 2008 highs. 

  • Oil is in a GLUT, with demand off a cliff.   

  • Mortgage Applications are falling again

  • 15 US States face a $26.7Bn mid-year budget gap

  • The EU is passing tough banking regulations

  • Our Government is expanding the insider trading investigation

  • China is likely to hike interest rates.

  • Mortgage Bond yields have leaped to 6-month highs.

  • Italy's budget plan is forcing a "no-confidence" vote for Berlusconi

  • US Retailers are cutting earnings forecasts and sitting on big inventories.


These are just TODAY'S headlines and they all add up to RISK.  Lack of risk recognition by the markets was the primary reason I called for cash in early November.  We are approaching 2008 pre-crash market highs with many stock trading higher than they were then on LESS revenues than they had at the time.  Meanwhile, 10% of our population is unemployed, consumer credit is down by over $1,000,000,000 (15%), household wealth is down 20% and income is down while the CPI, even by BS Government measures, is up 5% since then, effectively giving those people who still have jobs 5% less to spend anyway.  


And when you consider that discretionary income is just 20% of income - if the 80% they HAVE to spend went up 5%, then that's 4% of discretionary income gone, which is 20% of discretionary income out the window - FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL WORKING.  The other 10% have ZERO to spend and that's not good either.  All of this is being ignored as "investors" buy stocks on the hopes that they will expand sales internationally and keep cutting costs despite the same inflation the speculators are using to justify their very high valuations.  We're effectively writing off the US economy and placing all of our bullish eggs in the global basket - even though they have 20% unemployment "over there." - that's kind of nuts, don't you think?



I'm not even going to ask if the above 

chart (from Calculated Risk) disturbs you

. Clearly, from the results of the last election, it does not.  We are over 6M jobs away from recovery and we added less than 40,000 last month.  At least in Ireland, their population is shrinking, with 65,500 people (1.5%) abandoning the sinking ship as of April of this year.  That's less likely to happen in America as Mexico is not that attractive and Canada doesn't want us and most people can't afford to move anyway as they are upside down on their mortgages so we, as a people, sit and wait.  We sit and wait for something good to happen.  Any minute now...  Something good is bound to happen... NOW!   OK, maybe not now but really soon - something good has got to happen, right?  

 

That pretty much sums up our national policy - we don't actually do anything to create jobs but if we sprinkle enough magical fairy money on the rich, we're sure they'll start hiring people real soon!  Maybe as soon as they are done merging and acquiring smaller companies with all that money where they then create efficiencies by laying off 50,000 people a month (Challenger Job Cut Report) while more and more jobs are outsourced every day ($6Tn worth of jobs are currently outsourced).  And why not?  There are huge tax advantages to outsourcing US jobs - tax advantages that our President is perpetuating as he bends over and accepts the massive Republican tax cuts for the wealthy on behalf of the American people. 

 


Did I mention I was pissed?  Good, then moving along...  


So we kept our Jan shorts and didn't add any longs because we expect a bounce on the usual opening nonsense but I don't see enough dry powder left for the bulls to take us over that critical Dow 11,500 mark.  Meanwhile, CAT is way too high and they are a Dow component, as are XOM, CVX, IBM and MCD - all stocks that are major components in the price-weighted Dow and are more likely to pull back than move higher.  


EU money printing will not inflate our stocks - it may even boost the Buck and that would be bad for commodities, who had a pretty rough day yesterday (and we shorted a few).  I wish it were easier and I wish we could just say "CAT is overbought so we're going short" but the fundamentals of the stock are trumped by rumors of infinite Chinese demand and inflation expectations that somehow ignore the negative impact of rising steel prices and increasing borrowing costs on the company.  Of course the weak-dollar expectations have everyone moving into stocks, which are just another form of commodity to trade and, even as I write this, the dollar is being jammed back below 80.50 to goose the US open.  


At least we know how this game is rigged and we can have lots of fun betting the suckers never do find that red queen but what a shame that this is what the global economy has been reduced to - a shell game - and it's an empty shell at that! 


robert shumake

Are Korea&#39;s “Bending” away from Bluster? « Liveshots

LONDON After a 2010 that saw the Korean peninsula edge towards the brink of nuclear Armageddon,

CNN&#39;s John Roberts Joining Fox <b>News</b> | John Roberts | Mediaite

CNN's John Roberts is expected to join FOX News Channel as a senior national correspondent based in Atlanta and will be reporting on major domestic and international stories for the network. Roberts came up the ranks of CBS News, ...

John Roberts switches to FOX <b>News</b> | Inside TV | EW.com

John Roberts, the veteran newsman who co-hosted CNN's American Morning for three years, is joining the competition. “We are excited to welcome Jo...


robert shumake

2009 Houston Texans Training Camp by kahl4


robert shumake detroit










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